methylated.net

Twitter analytics for an average tweet for me. That’s where I do my more deplorable work to a larger more targeted audience.

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On the topic of Biden’s big lead in polls, in an earlier post I showed that while the USC daily tracker had Biden up by 10 points, they still quietly predicted a Trump victory in the electoral college.

https://www.methylated.net/2020/10/27/the-usc-dornsife-daily-tracking-poll-which-has-biden/

Now IBD, which has Biden up by 7 points, also states what is obvious to those who read past the “Biden 51 – Trump 44” headline.

The reality is IBD now too admits that Biden’s advantage comes from extreme left sentiment in blue states where presidential elections are not won, and that Biden and Trump are in a statistical tie where it matters most, in swing states.

And that is before you account for sampling errors, questionnaire formats, confirmation biases, non-responsiveness, and outright deceit.

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Trump just locked down Wisconsin.

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From the 2016 election. Good times.

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Under a Biden administration you’ll join him in his basement.

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Republicans are more united around the economy than Democrats are united around the COVID-19 response. With 12% defection both ways, the economy wins easily.

Biden’s white circles were the wrong bet.

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