methylated.net

Dementia Joe picked former prosecutor Kamala Harris, who sent at least 1,560 people to state prison for marijuana related offenses between 2011 and 2017, as his VP. I wonder how quickly the left will now forget that all cops are bad. #ACAB

Harris was so drunk with state prosecutorial power that she giggled about threatening to prosecute parents for truancy, i.e. failing to send their children to school, arguing that children need to be in school, which is that much more fascinating now, given that it’s Democrats who refuse to reopen schools.

What’s worse for Democrats is that, just as McCain’s VP pick Sarah Palin influenced the Republican party, eventually leading to the nomination of Trump, whom she endorsed, so will Kamala Harris, upon either a win or a loss, influence the Democrat party. After all, she’s an ambitious woman who won’t go away easily.

That this is the best Democrats can do is pretty pathetic, and I mean that sincerely.

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Racial attitudes towards Biden and Trump from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Though you may believe, with all the accusations of racism, and all that conversation about black lives mattering, that blacks hate Trump, that’s not what this data shows. As it turns out, both blacks who are voting against Trump and blacks who are voting for Trump are the least likely to disapprove of him.

Of those voting for Biden, 62% of Hispanics, 54% of Whites, and 21% of Blacks are against Trump.

Of those voting for Trump, 95% of Blacks, 85% of Whites, and 79% of Hispanics are in favor of Trump.

Blacks approve of Trump the most and disapprove of him the least, while Hispanics approve of Trump the least and disapprove of him the most, likely because they’re still upset about Mexico allegedly not sending their finest, necessitating building a wall.

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Secret Service shot someone outside of White House.

Breaking: Secret Service shot someone outside of White House, Trump says

Shortly after beginning a Monday evening press conference, President Trump departed from the briefing room. When he returned he reported that an individual h…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZZrDzsbEWQ

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General Election 2020 : Biden v. Trump v. 3rd Party, including ADJ and STE + 14D MA for 8/10/2020.

I continued to tweak my election data model and this is what I ended up with.

First, one thing to note is that since national polls track the popular vote, and since the US has an electoral college system where a candidate may still win despite losing the popular vote, I decided to break out the popular vote (circles) from victory (stars).

Second, as was the case with 2016, it’s obvious that polls are only as good the data they collect. Aside from sampling errors, there is also something called the Bradley effect (referred to as the Shy Trump effect (STE) in the case of Trump), where a person being polled is unwilling to be honest in fear of reprisal, being shamed, ridiculed, ostracized, attacked, etc.

In 2020, with cancel culture in full swing, Trump supporters are much more likely to keep their mouths shut than in 2016, for reasons that should be obvious to everyone, so that must be factored in when making a determination.

Finally, irrespective of data adjustment, notice the trend lines. While Biden may be polling higher than Trump, Biden is polling lower than he was a year ago, while Trump is polling higher than he was a year ago, with three months remaining.

Though not exactly the same, previous.

https://www.methylated.net/2020/08/07/biden-v-trump-for-8-7-20-7d-ma-agg/

I also decided to make one for 2016 : Clinton v. Trump, because I clearly have too much time on my hands. Maybe I’ll also make the ones for 2008 and 2012 Obama when I get bored enough.

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The Biden campaign has given up on door-to-door canvassing in battleground states, a reliable means of driving voter turnout. He’s apparently asked all his young volunteers to hide alongside him in his basement.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/04/trump-joe-biden-campaign-door-knockers-391454

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Excellent movie trailer and campaign ad.

Obamagate.

Would definitely watch this movie.

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Talia dancing to PPAP with Eren running around.

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Eren and Talia dancing to Marble Machine.

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Electoral Map for 8/7/20, including STE.

Trump gains Michigan, but softens in Arizona.

The decline in coronavirus cases continues to benefit Trump. Though Trump weakened in Arizona, that’s likely a lagging poll which reflected coronavirus anxiety a week or two ago, and should turn around quickly. Trump’s pro-police show of force in Portland also helped him in Michigan, as does his push to reopen the economy, since Michigan, where early armed reopen protests took place, believes the lockdowns have gone on much too long.

With this map, I’ve also colored Biden’s states an accurate shade of blue to reflect his strength or weakness in that state.

Previous map.

https://www.methylated.net/2020/07/31/electoral-map-for-7-31-20-including-ste/

Coronavirus cases in decline in nearly all states.

Different states on pace of reopening. Michigan and Pennsylvania want to reopen more quickly, while Arizona and Florida want to reopen more slowly, reflecting the caseloads in their states.

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Biden v. Trump for 8/7/20 , 7D MA AGG, including STE.

Previous.

https://www.methylated.net/2020/07/29/biden-v-trump-7d-moving-average-poll-aggregate-normalized/

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