methylated.net

Electoral Map for 11/02/20, including STE.

Michigan and Minnesota switch to Trump.

Quite a few new polls came out in the last day, so I didn’t take early voting into account yet.

Trump has been rallying hard in the rust belt, and late polls in Michigan moved towards Trump by a couple of points.

With respect to Minnesota, I’m apprehensive about giving this to Trump on polls alone, because I can’t tell if my model is failing for Minnesota or if everyone is just paranoid about Minnesota and under-polling Republicans there given that it hasn’t gone Republican since 1972. However, my numbers are what they are, so I’m giving it to Trump.

If I see more updated polls, I’ll post another poll based map, if not then the final map will take into account early voting data.

Previous map.

https://www.methylated.net/2020/10/30/electoral-map-for-10-30-20-including-ste/

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As expected, Teflon Don aka the comeback kid, is rallying back off his tax avoidance and coronavirus low. I would have liked him to rally stronger into pole position, but an uptrend has been established, and given that these are lagging indicators, I think this is good enough.

Since the election is tomorrow, this may be the last one of these that I post, so that’s that.

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Arizona flips on betting markets, Trump up on big volume.

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Trump rally in Miami, Florida.

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Early voting modeled data for Minnesota.

35% Republican, 36% Democrat, 29% non-partisan.

Minneapolis-Saint Paul is an island.

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Fire Fauci.

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Home stretch.

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