Electoral Map for 11/02/20, including STE.
Michigan and Minnesota switch to Trump.
Quite a few new polls came out in the last day, so I didn’t take early voting into account yet.
Trump has been rallying hard in the rust belt, and late polls in Michigan moved towards Trump by a couple of points.
With respect to Minnesota, I’m apprehensive about giving this to Trump on polls alone, because I can’t tell if my model is failing for Minnesota or if everyone is just paranoid about Minnesota and under-polling Republicans there given that it hasn’t gone Republican since 1972. However, my numbers are what they are, so I’m giving it to Trump.
If I see more updated polls, I’ll post another poll based map, if not then the final map will take into account early voting data.