Its now or never for Romney. There are 2 months left until the election; that doesn’t give him enough time to recover from another downward oscillation.
The best thing Romney did is pick Paul Ryan as his VP pick: it changed his short term trend and gave him tremendous momentum to the upside. He is now potentially days away from breaking his all time high, which he has must do, period.
Obama wasted all his time attacking Romney’s wealth and success. That was a distraction and did nothing for Obama; that led him lower. Obama is nowhere near his all time high (though he is in a better position than Romney). Obama’s message is awful; his primary benefit at this point is that he’s the incumbent and people generally avoid change. For Obama to break Romney, he has to break Paul Ryan.
Remember, the swing vote isn’t conservative or liberal; so ideological appeal is irrelevant.
The odds are in Obama’s favor, but I wouldn’t bet just yet.