Asymptomatic spread has been known for some time now. It’s not new data or new science. It’s been known since late January. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html)
Stop paying attention to CDC and WHO clowns (or other “expert authorities”), and learn to think for yourself. Use that thing inside your head you believe to be a brain.
Here’s a simple model projecting COVID-19 deaths.
In the US, with a population of 329m people, an estimated 80% being mild or non-symptomatic, and a 2.37% case-fatality rate, you can deduce that at present, 0.33% of the US population has been infected with COVID-19.
Assuming the same case-fatality rate, you then take this model to project out that 5% infection = 78k deaths, 10% infection = 156k deaths, 20% infection = 312k deaths, and herd immunity of 80% = 1.2m deaths. If the case-fatality rate increases, so do the deaths.
In Italy, an estimated 0.92% are infected, and the case-fatality rate is 11.9%. Those two figures applied to the US population results in 72k deaths.
The two ways to avoid this are a) reduce the case-fatality rate through better medical care, and b) reduce the infections through quarantines, social distancing, masks, etc.
It should be noted here that in the absence of a vaccine, 80% of the population wearing masks to prevent further spread is akin to achieving 80% herd immunity, minus the mass detention. It would be great if common sense prevailed.
The COVID-19 fatality model excel sheet is available below.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2ixsm507u0rk0v8/covid19-fatality-model.xlsx
I also want to add, per this model, with a population of 1.4 billion people, only 0.0284% of Chinese were infected.
In other words, in China, the land of make believe numbers, with 0.0284% infected, and a case-fatality rate of 4.1%, those two figures applied to the US population results in a mere 768 deaths.
🙄
Either Chinese numbers are total bullshit (they are), or China took some brutal actions to enforce their quarantine (they did), and it should have been obvious from the beginning those actions could never be replicated in a free society.
To try to uncover more realistic Chinese numbers, if you assume and apply the Italian 0.92% infected rate to China, and accept the Chinese 4.1% CFR (not really, but whatever), that results in 105k Chinese deaths.
Authorities really need to rethink this “shelter” at home nonsense, especially in the middle of an economic depression.
Coronavirus Latest: Man Shoots Girlfriend, Kills Self After Being Upset About Pandemic, Losing Job, Wilson Police Say
Police say 38-year-old Roderick Bliss IV shot his longtime girlfriend in the back before turning the gun on himself.
COVID-19 STRESS TEST – 2020-04-01
Countries over 2,000 cases, inc. Mexico, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan. Included is the 2020-03-25 stress test CFR, as well as the difference.
Also, China’s numbers are bullshit.
Previous stress test.
https://www.methylated.net/2020/03/25/in-2019-italys-healthcare-system-was-regarded-by-world/
The NY Times knew as late as December 2017 that masks were worn as a preventative measure by the general public during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 to help prevent its spread. I guess they suddenly forgot.
Patriotic duty in Portland.
Go to jail in California.
Cops.
Sporting events.
Wearing masks is the American way.
One fact that’s often tossed around to disparage US health care and to swoon over (now clearly abysmal) European health care is that the US has few hospital beds compared to other nations.
While that’s true, the US has the most ICU or critical care beds of all nations. With respect to COVID-19 related critical care, it’s ICU beds, not hospital beds, that matter.
That said, even hospital beds is a poor comparison as it doesn’t matter much since a) patients in the US aren’t kept in hospital beds as long as they’re kept in other countries (US hospitals are more efficient) and b) those who need additional care are quickly moved to less expensive extended care facilities.
